Wednesday, April 16, 2008
For Wednesday
It is weeks like this that helps me further my education. I have recently looked into trading options along with currency, and I have found many great opportunities. My favorite trades in the option market include oil, natural gas and currencies.
Friday, April 11, 2008
For Friday
When in doubt go long the Euro. I believe the dollar is losing in its place in history as being the key currency. It is unfortunate that the British reigned as the key currency for more than two hundred years. Here we are being supplanted by the Euro in about seventy five years, and I think that estimate is giving more credit to the US than it deserves. I am not saying it is a bad thing we are giving up our position, it will keep us competitive with the other industrial nations, but we will miss some of the benefits.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
For Wednesday
I hope everybody has taken this opportunity the market has given us. The opportuntiy for relaxation. Read a book, watch tv or spend time with your family. The markets will give us rational opportunities again, we just have to wait. We are at a crossroad. Remember we can't have fantastic weeks without weeks that are boring. It is better for your mind and focus if you take these weeks off. I still look at the charts a couple times a day.
I have been spending my free time on hulu.com, I recommend checking it out. Right now I am reading "Julian Robertson: A Tiger In The Land Of Bulls and Bears" by Strachman. It's a book. I don't know how to underline the title on this blog. Julian Robertson knew the man who started the first "hedged fund," his name was AW Jones and he was a research journalist. Julian Robertson is up there with George Soros. It is a great read if you are interested in understanding how these guys think and run their funds. When I say "run their funds" I mean you get to see how they manage their money: how much leverage they use, what percentage they put into different markets (equities, bonds, currencies, commodities), the size of their profit targets and stop losses. It is a nice read if you like history.
I have been spending my free time on hulu.com, I recommend checking it out. Right now I am reading "Julian Robertson: A Tiger In The Land Of Bulls and Bears" by Strachman. It's a book. I don't know how to underline the title on this blog. Julian Robertson knew the man who started the first "hedged fund," his name was AW Jones and he was a research journalist. Julian Robertson is up there with George Soros. It is a great read if you are interested in understanding how these guys think and run their funds. When I say "run their funds" I mean you get to see how they manage their money: how much leverage they use, what percentage they put into different markets (equities, bonds, currencies, commodities), the size of their profit targets and stop losses. It is a nice read if you like history.
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
For Tuesday
I am sticking with the GBP/CHF short. I will continue not to trade the usd pairs until they break out of the wedge formation. I am watching the other currencies, waiting for setups that I am comfortable with. With all of the news coming out this week and all of the price action last week, for me, the name of the game is patience. Still watching the aud/usd, nzd/usd for a short.
Sunday, April 6, 2008
Correction
One correction, I do not advise trading the usd/jpy or usd/chf until after they break out of the wedge pattern.
For Next Week Eur/gbp
This is another pair I will be watching for a possible short. However, I doubt the market will move much until the BOE and ECB rate decisions. When you get two technical tools to line up like this, the break is usually fantastic. I just wanted to put up this chart to give an example even though I fear the 23.6 line will be disconnected from the trendline by the time the currency sells off.For Next Week
I do not expect the aud/usd to break through the 23.6 fib level. I would like to take the aud/usd short to the trendline. When this pair starts going down, that would be a good time to short the nzd/usd as it is a weaker pair.Charts On Last Post Not Working
I know these charts are not expanding, the charts are all 4 hr of aud/usd, eur/aud, eur/cad, nzd/usd, eur/usd.
Other Things I am Watching For Tuesday and Beyond
I am very interested in the eur/usd chart. I am waiting to see when the wedge formation will be broken as this will provide direction and therefore opportunity. I am also watching the aud/usd for shorting opportunities. I believe this pair will continue to range and it may be nearing the upper boundary of the range. I am also watching the nzd/usd for shorting opportunities after the usd starts showing signs of strength. I am watching the eur/cad and the eur/aud, they look like they are going to range and will provide some good range trading opportunities. Here are the charts...I really doubt I will trade any of the aforementioned pairs on Monday.
For Monday Usd/Jpy
I will also be watching the usd/jpy and the gbp/jpy for a short, however I prefer the usd/chf and the gbp/chf. I bet it won't matter which one you take (usd/jpy or usd/chf).For Monday Usd/Chf
For those who can't handle the volatility of the gbp/chf I will include this pair as a good short candidate. I only recently started trading the gbp/jpy and gbp/chf on a regular basis...it is better to know your weaknesses and compensate then to be foolishly brave. I choose the usd/chf over the eur/usd because the euro is probably over valued for the moment and needs to retrace a little before we see more euro buyers enter the market. As central banks continue to stock pile euros, the euro will continue being a strong currency. Only rate cuts will cause this view to change.
For Monday GBP/CHF High Priority
This is my number one trade for Monday. I will be watching the usd/chf, and when the usd/chf starts to sell off I will take the gbp/chf short. When I trade the gbp/chf I check the gbp/usd for a range pattern, if it's ranging I will use the usd/chf as the trigger pair. If the usd/chf sells off the gbp/chf will also sell as long as the gbp/usd is not trending. Fundamentally we are trading the possible rate cut from the BOE on thursday. We are also trading risk aversion caused by weakness in the American Economy that could lead to a global recession. Until we get through the April 29th Fed meeting I doubt the dollar will break out of any ranges and move up, if anything there is still downside risk albeit small.Friday, April 4, 2008
The Week Is Over
Well I hope everybody had a good week. Nonfarm payroll does not get much more exciting than that...well maybe sometimes. I am not going to write a post for Monday until tomorrow night. If anybody has any recommendations on how I can improve my blog, please feel free to write. If anybody would like me to talk about a specific topic please let me know. I will also post a bit about my trade strategy this weekend. I like blogging more than Forex Factory because I can put better charts on my blog without having to worry about file size. I promise to give clearer trading advice. I have to get into the discipline of writing the blog, which I don't mind doing, it's just gonna take a week or two.
Clarification
Just to clarify I said that I felt the usd/jpy and usd/chf are suited for a short play. Unless you got in it an hour ago wait until the news comes out. I got in the usd/chf short but my stop is already at break even and I will get right out if the news is pro dollar.
Thursday, April 3, 2008
For Friday
The usd/jpy and the usd/chf I believe are well positioned for a short in terms of a risk versus reward basis. For me the eur/usd and gbp/usd are in too tight of a range to be traded safely. With that said I will not trade until nonfarm payroll data is released. I feel the jpy and chf are oversold yet their long term trend is currently down. I expect those currencies to fall back and therefore I will be watching for shorting opportunities. Generally, the markets are trading within a tight range. Tomorrow will give us a glimpse of future direction. I will post another thread tonight. The eur/cad and eur/aud look like they will give us many opportunities in the short term. If the BOE cuts rates next week...the GBP/CHF should be a good short. Something to think about: if the US continues to show weakness, currencies that carry less risk (chf,jpy and eur) will strengthen. Until the nzd and aud break out of their wedge formations, I am not comfortable trading either pair.
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
With These Charts
There is a dominant side to every one of these charts and there is a secondary side. The USD is dominate right now, however on some of the charts the CHF and Yen are dominant. You have to think of it in terms of relative value. Which currency is overvalued and needs to correct itself? Which currency is undervalued? Enter when the price either breaks a trendline or is near support or resistance after a bounce. In some cases you will need to wait for the price to move up or down before fading the move (trading in the opposite direction).
Info
If anybody from Forex Factory has a question about a specific currency pair e-mail me and I can help to clarify what I think will happen with the pair over the next day or two. jkeesee81@hotmail.com
I need to figure out how to put charts up here.
I need to figure out how to put charts up here.
For Thursday
It is a little early to start talking about possible trades for tomorrow, but I have to say that the eur/jpy will probably be a good candidate for a short.
The usd/jpy is coming on a major resistance level created by a 61.8 fibo off of a daily chart. Price really needs to come back to the trendline on 4 hr. Short expected.
The eur/jpy will run into resistance around 161.38 and there will be selling pressure due to profit taking from triple Wednesday. It is in a very wide range as seen on the daily chart. Short expected.
There may be an opportunity to buy in the USD/CAD, this would be a range play off of the 4 hour chart. Long expected.
There is a trendline that can be drawn on the aud/usd weekly chart, I will be expecting that to be broken. Watch for the triangle. Short expected.
We have some fantastic triangle being draw on the eur/usd, usd/chf and gbp/usd which explains the extreme ranging. We have a solid wait and see verdict on those currencies. Long dollar expected.
Same for the nzd/usd. I am looking for a short in both the aud and nzd v. the dollar. Watch for the triangle. Short expected.
Eur/chf is going to come into resistance at around 1.5862 or 1.5900. I like to use round numbers. Expect a short from that. Short expected.
Gbp/chf will see resistance at around 2.0300. Short expected.
Watch the eur/gbp around .7850 or look for a fade if it heads upward. I don't expect it to make a double top, but that would be nice. Watch trendline action.
1.5876 will be an important line for the eur/cad, i would like to see the currency to go up first before getting into a short but that might not happen. Trendline broken, downward pressure.
Eur/aud is in a range on the weekly chart. It should have some selling pressure.
There is a lot of selling pressure being applied to the eur/usd, we will have to see if we can get a push up before it goes down but I feel this is unlikely. Expect sell sometime. Watch.
Gbp/usd is stuck in a fibo range, if it breaks 1.9744 it's going down, we will have to wait and see if it goes up. I don't think it can make it up to 2.0200 but we will have to wait and see. We have an inside bar forming, whatever happens follow the break, especially if its down.
Gbp/jpy coming up on a significant trendline at around 204.50.
Sell xxx/jpy.
Sell xxx/chf.
Sell xxx/usd.
The usd/jpy is coming on a major resistance level created by a 61.8 fibo off of a daily chart. Price really needs to come back to the trendline on 4 hr. Short expected.
The eur/jpy will run into resistance around 161.38 and there will be selling pressure due to profit taking from triple Wednesday. It is in a very wide range as seen on the daily chart. Short expected.
There may be an opportunity to buy in the USD/CAD, this would be a range play off of the 4 hour chart. Long expected.
There is a trendline that can be drawn on the aud/usd weekly chart, I will be expecting that to be broken. Watch for the triangle. Short expected.
We have some fantastic triangle being draw on the eur/usd, usd/chf and gbp/usd which explains the extreme ranging. We have a solid wait and see verdict on those currencies. Long dollar expected.
Same for the nzd/usd. I am looking for a short in both the aud and nzd v. the dollar. Watch for the triangle. Short expected.
Eur/chf is going to come into resistance at around 1.5862 or 1.5900. I like to use round numbers. Expect a short from that. Short expected.
Gbp/chf will see resistance at around 2.0300. Short expected.
Watch the eur/gbp around .7850 or look for a fade if it heads upward. I don't expect it to make a double top, but that would be nice. Watch trendline action.
1.5876 will be an important line for the eur/cad, i would like to see the currency to go up first before getting into a short but that might not happen. Trendline broken, downward pressure.
Eur/aud is in a range on the weekly chart. It should have some selling pressure.
There is a lot of selling pressure being applied to the eur/usd, we will have to see if we can get a push up before it goes down but I feel this is unlikely. Expect sell sometime. Watch.
Gbp/usd is stuck in a fibo range, if it breaks 1.9744 it's going down, we will have to wait and see if it goes up. I don't think it can make it up to 2.0200 but we will have to wait and see. We have an inside bar forming, whatever happens follow the break, especially if its down.
Gbp/jpy coming up on a significant trendline at around 204.50.
Sell xxx/jpy.
Sell xxx/chf.
Sell xxx/usd.
What I'm Watching for Wednesday
I am looking to get back into the trend on either the eur/usd or usd/jpy. That means I need to see a good pullbuck and a turnaround. There needs to be plenty of room left for the currency to move a hundred pips before it gets stopped by support or resistance, respectively. The gbp/jpy is also a possible long play and the eur/cad is a possible short play. You never know, but I don't expect to get into a trade late in the european session or sometimes in the american session.
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
How to trade the GBP/JPY and the GBP/CHF
The pound and the dollar are trading together. The two currencies trade evenly and this is seen in their charts. When a currency pair moves sideways it means the two currency pairs are equal at their current level. For the moment the pound and the dollar are both high risk currencies. Even though the dollar has a low interest rate compared to the pound, the dollar has fallen enough to make up for the difference. The market believes the fed will not need to cut rates much in the future. The market is also not concerned with the possible rate cut by the BOE. A single rate cut or hike does little for the market. What does this have to do with the yen and the swissy?
The relative value of the usd/chf and the usd/jpy is much clearer on a chart than the gbp/usd. There seems to be a base forming with the dollar pairs. Regardless of the possibility of the base, the market is showing that it believes the jpy and chf are overvalued for the moment. To trade the gbp/jpy and gbp/chf simple trade it as though you were trading the usd/jpy and the usd/chf.
The relative value of the usd/chf and the usd/jpy is much clearer on a chart than the gbp/usd. There seems to be a base forming with the dollar pairs. Regardless of the possibility of the base, the market is showing that it believes the jpy and chf are overvalued for the moment. To trade the gbp/jpy and gbp/chf simple trade it as though you were trading the usd/jpy and the usd/chf.
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